Exaggerated Risk

  • Petko Kusev (Speaker)
  • Paul van Schaik (Speaker)
  • Peter Ayton (Speaker)
  • Nick Chater (Speaker)

Activity: Talk or presentation typesOral presentation


Four experiments study relative frequency judgment and recall of sequentially presented items drawn from two categories (e.g. cities/animals). We find (a) a first-run effect whereby people overestimate the frequency of a given category when that category is the first repeated category to occur in the sequence and (b) a dissociation between judgments and memory; respondents may judge one event more likely than the other and yet recall more instances of the latter. Frequency judgements are influenced by the first run - which may reflect the operation of a judgment heuristic - while free-recall is influenced by later items.
Period22 Aug 2007
Event title21st Bi-Annual Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making
Event typeConference
Conference number21
LocationWarsaw, PolandShow on map
Degree of RecognitionInternational