A Framework for Emergent Needs Analysis During Front End Design In Social Housing

Social Housing is increasingly a focus of debate in many countries because of the escalating need for affordable housing that has become intertwined with the needs of society both emergent and traditional.The delivery of social housing, however, is often complex from the many stakeholders involved resulting in design challenges on account of conflicting needs. This paper presents a conceptual model the Design Decision Support Model based on Utility Theory; for Front End Design in the face of emergent needs from multi-use scenarios defined by the multiple stakeholders. The Brazilian governments Minha Casa Minha Vida social housing program is the basis for the framework's conceptualisation in facilitating decision making with a focus on the utility of decisions. The model allows for analysis of emergent user and design needs during design using probability theory in accounting for uncertainty in the evidence base and requirements forecasting using Hidden Markov Modelling. This paper’s novel contribution is to present a theoretical conception of HMM in the analysis of changes in requirements and their interdependencies in front-end design decision making in AEC. The paper, therefore, adds to knowledge of requirements forecasting in design of social housing in the face of emergent needs in dynamic project contexts.