A Predictive Method for Benefits Realisation Through Modelling Uncertainty in Front End Design

Joas Serugga, Michail Kagioglou, Patricia Tzortzopoulos

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Many projects continue to fail to deliver intended benefits amid uncertainty in benefits realisation (BR) programs. This is more so in Front End Design (FED) where processes remain not only understudied but also informal yet reliant on knowledge sharing. As a result, there is an emergent need for new decision support tools to support benefits delivery processes. The paper addresses uncertainty with FED processes as a way of facilitating decision making as an enabler to benefits delivery of construction projects using uncertainty modelling. The paper adopts a Dempster-Shafer approach using probability theory. This is combined with Quality Function Deployment for user and design requirements capture and management. A conceptual model is suggested that forms a basis
for future validation and evaluations in action research in various contexts. The Paper introduces a novel approach to uncertainty modelling in FED to support decision making. The Dempster-Shafer Bayesian based approach also contributes to new ways for capturing contextual influences to benefits realisation.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of 27th Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction (IGLC)
EditorsC. Pasquire, F. R. Hamzeh
PublisherThe International Group for Lean Construction
Pages1321- 1332
Number of pages12
ISBN (Print)9781510899278
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Jul 2019
Event27th Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction - Dublin, Ireland
Duration: 3 Jul 20195 Jul 2019
Conference number: 27
http://iglc2019.com/
http://iglc2019.com/overview/

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction
PublisherInternational Group for Lean Construction (IGLC)
ISSN (Print)2309-0979

Conference

Conference27th Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction
Abbreviated titleIGLC2019
CountryIreland
CityDublin
Period3/07/195/07/19
Internet address

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  • Cite this

    Serugga, J., Kagioglou, M., & Tzortzopoulos, P. (2019). A Predictive Method for Benefits Realisation Through Modelling Uncertainty in Front End Design. In C. Pasquire, & F. R. Hamzeh (Eds.), Proceedings of 27th Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction (IGLC) (pp. 1321- 1332). (Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction). The International Group for Lean Construction. https://doi.org/10.24928/2019/0161