Antecedents of catch-up during trajectory shift in the medium-low-technology industry: a longitudinal study of the Chinese textile industry

Our research starts with a practical problem: there is limited catchup by developing country firms, except those of Korea, Taiwan and some sectors in China. Few researches directly address it. The windows of opportunity approach (Lee and Malerba, 2017) emphasizes technology discontinuity as an opportunity. We identify two potentials for theoretical expansion in this approach: reversal of catch-up in general and the threats of trajectory shift in particular. Our research therefore addresses two issues in catchup: How does trajectory shift cause reversal of catch up; and what are the antecedents to catch up during trajectory shift for developing country firms? Longitudinal study of the Chinese textile industry supports our propositions that a) in this sector, technology trajectory shifts presented greater threat than opportunity to latecomer firms, and thus cause reversal of catchup; b) In absence of opportunities during trajectory shift, two other windows need to be present prior to the shift for catchup success. Specifically, we found that market demand for the new trajectory, industrial policy and close linkage to local and domestic science bases and lead users are most relevant. We consider the implications for future research on catchup.