Application of Language Models to Suspect Prioritisation and Suspect Likelihood in Serial Crimes

Richard Bache, Fabio Crestani, David Canter, Donna Youngs

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Language Models are successfully applied to the problem of analysing crime descriptions from a police database with the purpose of prioritising suspects for an unsolved crime, given details of solved crimes. The frequency of terms in each description relates to the behaviour of the offender and this can be used to link crimes to a common offender. Language Modelling uses Bayes' theorem and thus require a prior probability. Such a prior can be based on each offender's past propensity to offend, derived from historic data. Language Modelling yields a probability of a document being relevant, which in this case is interpreted as the probability of a suspect being the culprit. Although the absolute value of the probability does not carry any direct applied implications, the study does show that the general likelihood of identification of the actual suspect does correspond to the relative values. Thus these probabilities can be used for more than just ranking suspects.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationThird International Symposium on Information Assurance and Security
EditorsNing Zhang, Ajith Abraham, Qi Shi, Johnson Thomas
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages399-404
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9780769528762
ISBN (Print)0769528767
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 10 Sep 2007
Externally publishedYes
Event3rd International Symposium on Information Assurance and Security - Manchester, United Kingdom
Duration: 29 Aug 200731 Aug 2007
Conference number: 3
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/4299734

Conference

Conference3rd International Symposium on Information Assurance and Security
Abbreviated titleIAS 2007
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityManchester
Period29/08/0731/08/07
Internet address

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Cite this

Bache, R., Crestani, F., Canter, D., & Youngs, D. (2007). Application of Language Models to Suspect Prioritisation and Suspect Likelihood in Serial Crimes. In N. Zhang, A. Abraham, Q. Shi, & J. Thomas (Eds.), Third International Symposium on Information Assurance and Security (pp. 399-404). [4299806] Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1109/IAS.2007.58