Assessing the poverty impact of the COVID-19-induced tourism crisis in Tanzania: A social accounting matrix microsimulation analysis

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant decline tourist arrivals and tourism revenues in Tanzania in 2020. Employing a social accounting matrix (SAM) microsimulation analysis, this study examines links between COVID-19-induced tourism disruption and poverty in Tanzania. The results of the SAM multiplier analysis indicate that all households will experience reduced incomes, and that this effect will be more pronounced in urban than rural households. The
microsimulation results suggest that the COVID-19-induced tourism crisis will exacerbate the poverty headcount, poverty gap and poverty severity, with urban and rural non-farm households being most affected. The results of the poverty decomposition show that the growth effect has a stronger impact than the inequality effect on increased poverty. Poverty increases and inequality decreases simultaneously. The paper suggests several demand- and supply-side
policies that may help to build tourism resilience and recovery and alleviate poverty in Tanzania in the post-COVID world.
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Sustainable Tourism
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 22 Dec 2021

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