Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey’s tourist arrivals

Ender Demir, Serdar Simonyan, Ming-Hsiang Chen, Chi Keung Lau

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

25 Citations (Scopus)


This paper applies a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the effects of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on Turkey's tourist arrivals (TAs) from January 1990 to December 2018. The newly developed Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) is used to measure GPRs. Test results reveal interesting findings. While the effects of GPRs on TAs are expected, the effects are found to be asymmetric in the short run. Specifically, an increase in GPRI reduces TAs in Turkey, but a decrease in GPRI has no effect in the short run. Moreover, there is no evidence for such an asymmetry in the long run.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)23-26
Number of pages4
JournalJournal of Hospitality and Tourism Management
Early online date11 Aug 2020
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2020


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