Benefits Realization: Novel Conceptual Model for Front End-Design Decision-Making Using Dempster-Shafer Theory and Quality Function Deployment

This paper proposes a new conceptual approach to address the gap in the understanding of benefits realization, which is an increasingly central element in the delivery of successful projects in architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) design. The paper focuses on the link between uncertainty in front-end design (FED) and the delivery of project benefits as understood in the broader benefits realization theory. The paper builds on the nature of uncertainty and use of Dempster-Shafer theoretic and quality function deployment to model the various interdependences among design attributes. A social housing case study of Brazil's Mia Casa, Mia Vida Program demonstrated the application of the modeling approach. Optimal belief and plausibility structures in design decision-making were observed to increase with increasing consideration of more use models. These findings demonstrate that modeling uncertainty in FED can contribute to improved design decision-making. The paper's novel contribution is introducing uncertainty modeling to support design decision-making to overcome insufficiencies in the inherently rational design decision-making that often is unable to discern complexities in dynamic project contexts.