CoViD-19 may not end as predicted by the SIR model

Hamid Merchant

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterpeer-review


The researchers from Singapore University of Technology and Design recently launched a website presenting the predicted CoViD-19 end dates in various countries across the world. The predictions based on susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model used the pandemic life cycle curves to predict the CoViD-19 end dates for various countries. The curves in many countries are asymmetric and mainly skewed to the right (positive skewness) which means the actual end dates can be much later than the current predictions. This is particularly evident in profiles in the UK, Italy, USA, Spain, Canada, UAE etc. The expected end date in the world is, therefore, also likely to be later than the predicted date using this model. Caution is necessary for any over-enthusiasm on the end of CoViD-19 based on these predictions. Contrary to these, some other countries where the pandemic started late still seems to be on the upward trajectory of the predicted curves. This may mean that some countries may benefit from a much earlier end of CoViD-19 than what's currently predicted by this model.
Original languageEnglish
Article numberm1567/rr
Number of pages1
JournalThe BMJ
Publication statusPublished - 2 May 2020


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