Determinants of Intra-Maghreb Air Transport Demand

This chapter provides an overview of the internal airline market in the Maghreb and examines the determinants of intra-Maghreb air traffic flows. Most accounts of recent developments in the air transport markets in Africa have focused on the Continent as a whole and to some extent on Eastern and Southern African countries. Previous analysis of air transportation in the Maghreb has involved origins and destinations outside of the region. The analysis of domestic and intra-Maghreb traffic shows that the greatest share of traffic is concentrated on routes linking capital cities and commercial centers. Most intra-Maghreb flights are indirect, with some domestic and intraregional flights transferring through European airports. Here, a gravity equation is used to estimate the volume of traffic between Maghreb countries in relation to a wide set of factors. The results suggest that key determinants of air intra-Maghreb air traffic demand are generally in line with findings in other markets, including those involving GDP, fares, conflicts, visa openness, trade, and the quality of airline services.