TY - JOUR
T1 - Detrended fluctuation analysis of seismicity and order parameter fluctuations before the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake
AU - Skordas, Efthimios S.
AU - Christopoulos, Stavros Richard G.
AU - Sarlis, Nicholas V.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
PY - 2020/1/1
Y1 - 2020/1/1
N2 - Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) has been recently applied for the investigation of temporal correlations between the earthquake magnitudes before major earthquakes. Here, we employ DFA together with natural time analysis in order to identify precursory phenomena to the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake on July 6, 2019. The analysis reveals that a minimum of the variability of the order parameter of seismicity in natural time is observed almost a month before the occurrence of this earthquake. This minimum was observed when DFA indicated the development of the presence of long-range correlations which turned to an almost random behavior before the strong earthquake. Upon starting the study of seismicity in natural time from the minimization of the variability on June 5, 2019, we conclude that criticality has been reached at 22:41 UTC on July 2, 2019, almost 3 days before the earthquake occurrence. The application of an algorithm based on the coherent noise model would have led to a warning 3 min before the occurrence of the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake.
AB - Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) has been recently applied for the investigation of temporal correlations between the earthquake magnitudes before major earthquakes. Here, we employ DFA together with natural time analysis in order to identify precursory phenomena to the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake on July 6, 2019. The analysis reveals that a minimum of the variability of the order parameter of seismicity in natural time is observed almost a month before the occurrence of this earthquake. This minimum was observed when DFA indicated the development of the presence of long-range correlations which turned to an almost random behavior before the strong earthquake. Upon starting the study of seismicity in natural time from the minimization of the variability on June 5, 2019, we conclude that criticality has been reached at 22:41 UTC on July 2, 2019, almost 3 days before the earthquake occurrence. The application of an algorithm based on the coherent noise model would have led to a warning 3 min before the occurrence of the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake.
KW - Coherent noise model
KW - Detrended fluctuation analysis
KW - Earthquakes
KW - Natural time analysis
KW - Order parameter of seismicity
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85077261914&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s11069-019-03834-7
DO - 10.1007/s11069-019-03834-7
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85077261914
VL - 100
SP - 697
EP - 711
JO - Natural Hazards
JF - Natural Hazards
SN - 0921-030X
IS - 2
ER -