Estimating Peak uranium production in China – Based on a Stella model

Jianchun Fang, Chi Keung Lau, Zhou Lu, Wanshan Wu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper uses the Logistic Curve and the STELLA model to simulate the Hubbert Peak uranium production in China. We used three scenarios to estimate China's Peak uranium. And the results are quite robust. According to Scenario 3, the Hubbert Peak uranium production is expected to be reached in 2065 with 4605 t per year. Before the peak, China's uranium demand will grow at the rate of about 7.69% per year, which is about three times the growth rate of production. China's uranium import dependence is estimated to continue to increase. In order to improve uranium resources security, the Chinese government needs to increase investment in uranium ore exploration, encourage private sector's investment in uranium production to promote competition, and improve cooperation with non-uranium mining enterprises for more efficient use of resources. To enhance the country's uranium security, China should establish development funds, accelerate acquisition of uranium enterprises abroad, increase R&D in the unconventional uranium resources such as phosphate mine, and take advantage of price downturn in uranium market to increase strategic reserves.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)250-258
Number of pages9
JournalEnergy Policy
Volume120
Early online date26 May 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2018

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Uranium
uranium
China
Phosphate mines
resource
Resources
private sector
Ores
import
Logistics
Industry
logistics
phosphate
Scenarios
market

Cite this

Fang, Jianchun ; Lau, Chi Keung ; Lu, Zhou ; Wu, Wanshan . / Estimating Peak uranium production in China – Based on a Stella model. In: Energy Policy. 2018 ; Vol. 120. pp. 250-258.
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title = "Estimating Peak uranium production in China – Based on a Stella model",
abstract = "This paper uses the Logistic Curve and the STELLA model to simulate the Hubbert Peak uranium production in China. We used three scenarios to estimate China's Peak uranium. And the results are quite robust. According to Scenario 3, the Hubbert Peak uranium production is expected to be reached in 2065 with 4605 t per year. Before the peak, China's uranium demand will grow at the rate of about 7.69{\%} per year, which is about three times the growth rate of production. China's uranium import dependence is estimated to continue to increase. In order to improve uranium resources security, the Chinese government needs to increase investment in uranium ore exploration, encourage private sector's investment in uranium production to promote competition, and improve cooperation with non-uranium mining enterprises for more efficient use of resources. To enhance the country's uranium security, China should establish development funds, accelerate acquisition of uranium enterprises abroad, increase R&D in the unconventional uranium resources such as phosphate mine, and take advantage of price downturn in uranium market to increase strategic reserves.",
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author = "Jianchun Fang and Lau, {Chi Keung} and Zhou Lu and Wanshan Wu",
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Estimating Peak uranium production in China – Based on a Stella model. / Fang, Jianchun ; Lau, Chi Keung; Lu, Zhou; Wu, Wanshan .

In: Energy Policy, Vol. 120, 09.2018, p. 250-258.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

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AU - Fang, Jianchun

AU - Lau, Chi Keung

AU - Lu, Zhou

AU - Wu, Wanshan

PY - 2018/9

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N2 - This paper uses the Logistic Curve and the STELLA model to simulate the Hubbert Peak uranium production in China. We used three scenarios to estimate China's Peak uranium. And the results are quite robust. According to Scenario 3, the Hubbert Peak uranium production is expected to be reached in 2065 with 4605 t per year. Before the peak, China's uranium demand will grow at the rate of about 7.69% per year, which is about three times the growth rate of production. China's uranium import dependence is estimated to continue to increase. In order to improve uranium resources security, the Chinese government needs to increase investment in uranium ore exploration, encourage private sector's investment in uranium production to promote competition, and improve cooperation with non-uranium mining enterprises for more efficient use of resources. To enhance the country's uranium security, China should establish development funds, accelerate acquisition of uranium enterprises abroad, increase R&D in the unconventional uranium resources such as phosphate mine, and take advantage of price downturn in uranium market to increase strategic reserves.

AB - This paper uses the Logistic Curve and the STELLA model to simulate the Hubbert Peak uranium production in China. We used three scenarios to estimate China's Peak uranium. And the results are quite robust. According to Scenario 3, the Hubbert Peak uranium production is expected to be reached in 2065 with 4605 t per year. Before the peak, China's uranium demand will grow at the rate of about 7.69% per year, which is about three times the growth rate of production. China's uranium import dependence is estimated to continue to increase. In order to improve uranium resources security, the Chinese government needs to increase investment in uranium ore exploration, encourage private sector's investment in uranium production to promote competition, and improve cooperation with non-uranium mining enterprises for more efficient use of resources. To enhance the country's uranium security, China should establish development funds, accelerate acquisition of uranium enterprises abroad, increase R&D in the unconventional uranium resources such as phosphate mine, and take advantage of price downturn in uranium market to increase strategic reserves.

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KW - Logistic curve

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