From protest to pressure: mapping escalation pathways in UK environmental activism

As the climate crisis intensifies, questions arise over the future trajectory of environmental activism and the potential for radicalisation in response to persistent policy inaction. While prominent UK movements such as Extinction Rebellion (XR) and Just Stop Oil (JSO) remain committed to non-violence, their escalating tactics raise concerns about how activism may evolve if conventional protest fails to deliver urgent climate reforms. Drawing on twenty-eight semi-structured interviews and participant observation, this study examines activist motivations, strategies, and perceptions of political responsiveness. The findings inform the development of the ‘Environmental Activism Thermometer’, a conceptual model mapping potential pathways of escalation within climate activism. By situating XR and JSO’s activities within broader sociopolitical and psychological contexts, the paper offers novel insights into the dynamics driving environmental radicalisation and discusses the implications for policymakers seeking to address both the root causes of activism and the risks of future escalation.