Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty

Ben J.M. Ale, Coen Van Gulijk, Daniela Hanea, Patrick Hudson, Pei Hui Lin, Simone Sillem, Marcel Steenhoek, Dan Ababei

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A much more efficient method for developing the continuous BBNs is based on standard building blocks consisting of nodes for a piece of equipment and nodes for potential safety features. Elements of the BBN can be switched on or off as required. From the equipment inventory of a chemical plant a complete BBN can be built automatically. Humans are represented by multiple instances of the same BBN structure, but with different parameters. The resulting computer program calculates the frequency of Loss of Containment Accidents for an existing or a proposed plant including the effects of human behaviour and intervention, including rigorous handling of the uncertainties.

LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationSafety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013
EditorsR.D.J.M. Steenbergen, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, S. Miraglia, A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder
Publishershers
Pages1839-1846
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9781315815596
ISBN (Print)9781138001237
Publication statusPublished - 18 Sep 2013
Externally publishedYes
EventAnnual European Safety and Reliability Conference - Amsterdam, Netherlands
Duration: 29 Sep 20132 Oct 2013
https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/en/activities/european-safety-and-reliability-conference-esrel-2013(4f871466-b57c-4ec1-aff0-bb52968db52d).html (Link to Event Details )

Conference

ConferenceAnnual European Safety and Reliability Conference
Abbreviated titleESREL 2013
CountryNetherlands
CityAmsterdam
Period29/09/132/10/13
Internet address

Fingerprint

Civil aviation
Chemical plants
Computer program listings
Chemical reactions
Accidents
Hydrocarbons
Industry
Uncertainty

Cite this

Ale, B. J. M., Van Gulijk, C., Hanea, D., Hudson, P., Lin, P. H., Sillem, S., ... Ababei, D. (2013). Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty. In R. D. J. M. Steenbergen, P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder, S. Miraglia, & A. C. W. M. Vrouwenvelder (Eds.), Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon: Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 (pp. 1839-1846). shers.
Ale, Ben J.M. ; Van Gulijk, Coen ; Hanea, Daniela ; Hudson, Patrick ; Lin, Pei Hui ; Sillem, Simone ; Steenhoek, Marcel ; Ababei, Dan. / Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty. Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon: Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. editor / R.D.J.M. Steenbergen ; P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder ; S. Miraglia ; A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder. shers, 2013. pp. 1839-1846
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abstract = "An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A much more efficient method for developing the continuous BBNs is based on standard building blocks consisting of nodes for a piece of equipment and nodes for potential safety features. Elements of the BBN can be switched on or off as required. From the equipment inventory of a chemical plant a complete BBN can be built automatically. Humans are represented by multiple instances of the same BBN structure, but with different parameters. The resulting computer program calculates the frequency of Loss of Containment Accidents for an existing or a proposed plant including the effects of human behaviour and intervention, including rigorous handling of the uncertainties.",
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Ale, BJM, Van Gulijk, C, Hanea, D, Hudson, P, Lin, PH, Sillem, S, Steenhoek, M & Ababei, D 2013, Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty. in RDJM Steenbergen, PHAJM van Gelder, S Miraglia & ACWM Vrouwenvelder (eds), Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon: Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. shers, pp. 1839-1846, Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 29/09/13.

Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty. / Ale, Ben J.M.; Van Gulijk, Coen; Hanea, Daniela; Hudson, Patrick; Lin, Pei Hui; Sillem, Simone; Steenhoek, Marcel; Ababei, Dan.

Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon: Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. ed. / R.D.J.M. Steenbergen; P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder; S. Miraglia; A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder. shers, 2013. p. 1839-1846.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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AU - Ale, Ben J.M.

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AU - Hanea, Daniela

AU - Hudson, Patrick

AU - Lin, Pei Hui

AU - Sillem, Simone

AU - Steenhoek, Marcel

AU - Ababei, Dan

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AB - An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A much more efficient method for developing the continuous BBNs is based on standard building blocks consisting of nodes for a piece of equipment and nodes for potential safety features. Elements of the BBN can be switched on or off as required. From the equipment inventory of a chemical plant a complete BBN can be built automatically. Humans are represented by multiple instances of the same BBN structure, but with different parameters. The resulting computer program calculates the frequency of Loss of Containment Accidents for an existing or a proposed plant including the effects of human behaviour and intervention, including rigorous handling of the uncertainties.

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M3 - Conference contribution

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BT - Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon

A2 - Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.

A2 - van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

A2 - Miraglia, S.

A2 - Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

PB - shers

ER -

Ale BJM, Van Gulijk C, Hanea D, Hudson P, Lin PH, Sillem S et al. Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty. In Steenbergen RDJM, van Gelder PHAJM, Miraglia S, Vrouwenvelder ACWM, editors, Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon: Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. shers. 2013. p. 1839-1846