Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty

Ben J.M. Ale; Coen Van Gulijk; Daniela Hanea; Patrick Hudson; Pei Hui Lin; Simone Sillem; Marcel Steenhoek; Dan Ababei

Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty

Ben J.M. Ale, Coen Van Gulijk, Daniela Hanea, Patrick Hudson, Pei Hui Lin, Simone Sillem, Marcel Steenhoek, Dan Ababei

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A much more efficient method for developing the continuous BBNs is based on standard building blocks consisting of nodes for a piece of equipment and nodes for potential safety features. Elements of the BBN can be switched on or off as required. From the equipment inventory of a chemical plant a complete BBN can be built automatically. Humans are represented by multiple instances of the same BBN structure, but with different parameters. The resulting computer program calculates the frequency of Loss of Containment Accidents for an existing or a proposed plant including the effects of human behaviour and intervention, including rigorous handling of the uncertainties.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon
Subtitle of host publication	Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013
Editors	R.D.J.M. Steenbergen, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, S. Miraglia, A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder
Publisher	shers
Pages	1839-1846
Number of pages	8
ISBN (Electronic)	9781315815596
ISBN (Print)	9781138001237
Publication status	Published - 18 Sep 2013
Externally published	Yes
Event	Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference - Amsterdam, Netherlands Duration: 29 Sep 2013 → 2 Oct 2013 https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/en/activities/european-safety-and-reliability-conference-esrel-2013(4f871466-b57c-4ec1-aff0-bb52968db52d).html (Link to Event Details )

Conference

Conference	Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference
Abbreviated title	ESREL 2013
Country/Territory	Netherlands
City	Amsterdam
Period	29/09/13 → 2/10/13
Internet address	https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/en/activities/european-safety-and-reliability-conference-esrel-2013(4f871466-b57c-4ec1-aff0-bb52968db52d).html (Link to Event Details )

Cite this

Ale, B. J. M., Van Gulijk, C., Hanea, D., Hudson, P., Lin, P. H., Sillem, S., Steenhoek, M., & Ababei, D. (2013). Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty. In R. D. J. M. Steenbergen, P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder, S. Miraglia, & A. C. W. M. Vrouwenvelder (Eds.), Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon: Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 (pp. 1839-1846). shers.

Ale, Ben J.M. ; Van Gulijk, Coen ; Hanea, Daniela et al. / Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty. Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon: Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. editor / R.D.J.M. Steenbergen ; P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder ; S. Miraglia ; A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder. shers, 2013. pp. 1839-1846

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abstract = "An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A much more efficient method for developing the continuous BBNs is based on standard building blocks consisting of nodes for a piece of equipment and nodes for potential safety features. Elements of the BBN can be switched on or off as required. From the equipment inventory of a chemical plant a complete BBN can be built automatically. Humans are represented by multiple instances of the same BBN structure, but with different parameters. The resulting computer program calculates the frequency of Loss of Containment Accidents for an existing or a proposed plant including the effects of human behaviour and intervention, including rigorous handling of the uncertainties.",

author = "Ale, {Ben J.M.} and {Van Gulijk}, Coen and Daniela Hanea and Patrick Hudson and Lin, {Pei Hui} and Simone Sillem and Marcel Steenhoek and Dan Ababei",

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publisher = "shers",

address = "Netherlands",

url = "https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/en/activities/european-safety-and-reliability-conference-esrel-2013(4f871466-b57c-4ec1-aff0-bb52968db52d).html",

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Ale, BJM, Van Gulijk, C, Hanea, D, Hudson, P, Lin, PH, Sillem, S, Steenhoek, M & Ababei, D 2013, Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty. in RDJM Steenbergen, PHAJM van Gelder, S Miraglia & ACWM Vrouwenvelder (eds), Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon: Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. shers, pp. 1839-1846, Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 29/09/13.

Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty. / Ale, Ben J.M.; Van Gulijk, Coen; Hanea, Daniela et al.

Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon: Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. ed. / R.D.J.M. Steenbergen; P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder; S. Miraglia; A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder. shers, 2013. p. 1839-1846.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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AU - Ale, Ben J.M.

AU - Van Gulijk, Coen

AU - Hanea, Daniela

AU - Hudson, Patrick

AU - Lin, Pei Hui

AU - Sillem, Simone

AU - Steenhoek, Marcel

AU - Ababei, Dan

N1 - No record of this in Eprints. HN 24/11/2017

PY - 2013/9/18

Y1 - 2013/9/18

N2 - An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A much more efficient method for developing the continuous BBNs is based on standard building blocks consisting of nodes for a piece of equipment and nodes for potential safety features. Elements of the BBN can be switched on or off as required. From the equipment inventory of a chemical plant a complete BBN can be built automatically. Humans are represented by multiple instances of the same BBN structure, but with different parameters. The resulting computer program calculates the frequency of Loss of Containment Accidents for an existing or a proposed plant including the effects of human behaviour and intervention, including rigorous handling of the uncertainties.

AB - An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A much more efficient method for developing the continuous BBNs is based on standard building blocks consisting of nodes for a piece of equipment and nodes for potential safety features. Elements of the BBN can be switched on or off as required. From the equipment inventory of a chemical plant a complete BBN can be built automatically. Humans are represented by multiple instances of the same BBN structure, but with different parameters. The resulting computer program calculates the frequency of Loss of Containment Accidents for an existing or a proposed plant including the effects of human behaviour and intervention, including rigorous handling of the uncertainties.

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M3 - Conference contribution

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SN - 9781138001237

SP - 1839

EP - 1846

BT - Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon

A2 - Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.

A2 - van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

A2 - Miraglia, S.

A2 - Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

PB - shers

T2 - Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference

Y2 - 29 September 2013 through 2 October 2013

ER -

Ale BJM, Van Gulijk C, Hanea D, Hudson P, Lin PH, Sillem S et al. Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty. In Steenbergen RDJM, van Gelder PHAJM, Miraglia S, Vrouwenvelder ACWM, editors, Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon: Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. shers. 2013. p. 1839-1846

Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty

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