We study the transmission mechanism of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty across the US states. We analyse the contemporaneous and temporal causal relationships of uncertainty at the state level by utilising the Bayesian graphical VAR (BGVAR) model. Our results show that the current uncertainty of each state strongly depends on the previous level of uncertainty in its own state. We find evidence of strong contemporaneous and lagged dependence among US states. The analysis of this paper has important policy implications.
|Number of pages||11|
|Journal||Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications|
|Early online date||11 Oct 2019|
|Publication status||Published - 15 Feb 2020|
Gupta, R., Lau, C. K., & Sheng, X. (2020). Graph theory-based network analysis of regional uncertainties of the US economy. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 540, . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.123064