Identifying the Occurrence Time of the Destructive Kahramanmaraş-Gazientep Earthquake of Magnitude M7.8 in Turkey on 6 February 2023

Nicholas V. Sarlis, Efthimios S. Skordas, Stavros Christopoulos, Panayiotis K. Varotsos

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Here, we employ natural time analysis of seismicity together with non-extensive statistical mechanics aiming at shortening the occurrence time window of the Kahramanmaraş-Gazientep M7.8 earthquake. The results obtained are in the positive direction pointing to the fact that after 3 February 2023 at 11:05:58 UTC, a strong earthquake was imminent. Natural time analysis also reveals a minimum fluctuation of the order parameter of seismicity almost three and a half months before the M7.8 earthquake, pointing to the initiation of seismic electrical activity. Moreover, before this earthquake occurrence, the detrended fluctuation analysis of the earthquake magnitude time-series reveals random behavior. Finally, when applying earthquake nowcasting, we find average earthquake potential score values which are compatible with those previously observed before strong (𝑀≥7.1) earthquakes. The results obtained may improve our understanding of the physics of crustal phenomena that lead to strong earthquakes.
Original languageEnglish
Article number1215
Number of pages19
JournalApplied Sciences (Switzerland)
Issue number3
Early online date31 Jan 2024
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2024

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