Impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice

Byongjun (Phil) Hwang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ed Blockley, Michel Tsamados, Thomas Brown, Jack Landy, David Stevens, Jeremy Wilkinson

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

Abstract

Satellite measurements continue to reveal reductions in the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. Research suggests that at least half of the observed decline of ice extent can be linked directly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting increase in global mean surface air temperature. As perennial sea ice has been progressively replaced by seasonal ice cover, we have observed changes to the marine ecosystem, ocean properties, atmospheric circulation, and evidence of Arctic links to extreme weather events at lower latitudes. Under the RCP8.5 future emission scenario, it is very likely that we will see a seasonally ice-free Arctic before 2050. Crucially, if we comply with the terms of the Paris Agreement and limit global average temperatures to below 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, the likelihood of a seasonally ice-free Arctic will be greatly reduced. Furthermore, if we limit warming to only 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, then there is a high chance that the Arctic will not become ice free in summer. A warmer Arctic will increase coastal erosion, permafrost thawing and marine pollutants. The future of Arctic marine ecosystem and the sustainability of the fishing industry will be more uncertain due to changing ocean circulation, nutrient flow and light availability.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)208-227
Number of pages20
JournalMCCIP Science Review
Volume2020
Early online date15 Jan 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Jan 2020

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sea ice
ice
climate change
marine ecosystem
fishing industry
coastal erosion
light availability
thawing
ice cover
atmospheric circulation
permafrost
greenhouse gas
surface temperature
air temperature
warming
sustainability
weather
pollutant
nutrient
ocean

Cite this

Hwang, B. P., Aksenov, Y., Blockley, E., Tsamados, M., Brown, T., Landy, J., ... Wilkinson, J. (2020). Impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice. MCCIP Science Review, 2020, 208-227. https://doi.org/10.14465/2020.arc10.ice
Hwang, Byongjun (Phil) ; Aksenov, Yevgeny ; Blockley, Ed ; Tsamados, Michel ; Brown, Thomas ; Landy, Jack ; Stevens, David ; Wilkinson, Jeremy. / Impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice. In: MCCIP Science Review. 2020 ; Vol. 2020. pp. 208-227.
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abstract = "Satellite measurements continue to reveal reductions in the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. Research suggests that at least half of the observed decline of ice extent can be linked directly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting increase in global mean surface air temperature. As perennial sea ice has been progressively replaced by seasonal ice cover, we have observed changes to the marine ecosystem, ocean properties, atmospheric circulation, and evidence of Arctic links to extreme weather events at lower latitudes. Under the RCP8.5 future emission scenario, it is very likely that we will see a seasonally ice-free Arctic before 2050. Crucially, if we comply with the terms of the Paris Agreement and limit global average temperatures to below 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, the likelihood of a seasonally ice-free Arctic will be greatly reduced. Furthermore, if we limit warming to only 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, then there is a high chance that the Arctic will not become ice free in summer. A warmer Arctic will increase coastal erosion, permafrost thawing and marine pollutants. The future of Arctic marine ecosystem and the sustainability of the fishing industry will be more uncertain due to changing ocean circulation, nutrient flow and light availability.",
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Hwang, BP, Aksenov, Y, Blockley, E, Tsamados, M, Brown, T, Landy, J, Stevens, D & Wilkinson, J 2020, 'Impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice', MCCIP Science Review, vol. 2020, pp. 208-227. https://doi.org/10.14465/2020.arc10.ice

Impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice. / Hwang, Byongjun (Phil); Aksenov, Yevgeny; Blockley, Ed; Tsamados, Michel; Brown, Thomas; Landy, Jack ; Stevens, David; Wilkinson, Jeremy.

In: MCCIP Science Review, Vol. 2020, 15.01.2020, p. 208-227.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

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T1 - Impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice

AU - Hwang, Byongjun (Phil)

AU - Aksenov, Yevgeny

AU - Blockley, Ed

AU - Tsamados, Michel

AU - Brown, Thomas

AU - Landy, Jack

AU - Stevens, David

AU - Wilkinson, Jeremy

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PY - 2020/1/15

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N2 - Satellite measurements continue to reveal reductions in the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. Research suggests that at least half of the observed decline of ice extent can be linked directly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting increase in global mean surface air temperature. As perennial sea ice has been progressively replaced by seasonal ice cover, we have observed changes to the marine ecosystem, ocean properties, atmospheric circulation, and evidence of Arctic links to extreme weather events at lower latitudes. Under the RCP8.5 future emission scenario, it is very likely that we will see a seasonally ice-free Arctic before 2050. Crucially, if we comply with the terms of the Paris Agreement and limit global average temperatures to below 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, the likelihood of a seasonally ice-free Arctic will be greatly reduced. Furthermore, if we limit warming to only 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, then there is a high chance that the Arctic will not become ice free in summer. A warmer Arctic will increase coastal erosion, permafrost thawing and marine pollutants. The future of Arctic marine ecosystem and the sustainability of the fishing industry will be more uncertain due to changing ocean circulation, nutrient flow and light availability.

AB - Satellite measurements continue to reveal reductions in the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. Research suggests that at least half of the observed decline of ice extent can be linked directly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting increase in global mean surface air temperature. As perennial sea ice has been progressively replaced by seasonal ice cover, we have observed changes to the marine ecosystem, ocean properties, atmospheric circulation, and evidence of Arctic links to extreme weather events at lower latitudes. Under the RCP8.5 future emission scenario, it is very likely that we will see a seasonally ice-free Arctic before 2050. Crucially, if we comply with the terms of the Paris Agreement and limit global average temperatures to below 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, the likelihood of a seasonally ice-free Arctic will be greatly reduced. Furthermore, if we limit warming to only 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, then there is a high chance that the Arctic will not become ice free in summer. A warmer Arctic will increase coastal erosion, permafrost thawing and marine pollutants. The future of Arctic marine ecosystem and the sustainability of the fishing industry will be more uncertain due to changing ocean circulation, nutrient flow and light availability.

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Hwang BP, Aksenov Y, Blockley E, Tsamados M, Brown T, Landy J et al. Impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice. MCCIP Science Review. 2020 Jan 15;2020:208-227. https://doi.org/10.14465/2020.arc10.ice