Left-hand side BBN model for process safety

C. Van Gulijk; D. H. Hanea; Karina Q. Almeida Leñero; M. Steenhoek; B. J.M. Ale; Dan Ababei

Left-hand side BBN model for process safety

C. Van Gulijk, D. H. Hanea, Karina Q. Almeida Leñero, M. Steenhoek, B. J.M. Ale, Dan Ababei

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

This paper describes the blueprint of a model for calculating the left-hand side of the bow-tie for chemical plants is described. The model is based on Non-Parametric Bayesian Belief Nets so that uncertainties are automatically included. Also, the procedure for constructing the elements for the model is described. The aim is to calculate LoC frequencies for entire chemical plants in a single straightforward modeling approach in a single model. It is demonstrated that only four principle design rules are required to construct the blueprint for a model that is flexible and straightforward to work with. It was also found that design process for the components of the model is traceable and reproducible. A structured working procedure was designed to meet those requirements. A numerical validation process will follow in the future.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon
Subtitle of host publication	Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013
Publisher	C R C Press
Pages	1867-1873
Number of pages	7
ISBN (Electronic)	9781315815596
ISBN (Print)	9781138001237
Publication status	Published - 18 Sep 2014
Externally published	Yes
Event	Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference - Amsterdam, Netherlands Duration: 29 Sep 2013 → 2 Oct 2013 https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/en/activities/european-safety-and-reliability-conference-esrel-2013(4f871466-b57c-4ec1-aff0-bb52968db52d).html (Link to Event Details )

Conference

Conference	Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference
Abbreviated title	ESREL 2013
Country/Territory	Netherlands
City	Amsterdam
Period	29/09/13 → 2/10/13
Internet address	https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/en/activities/european-safety-and-reliability-conference-esrel-2013(4f871466-b57c-4ec1-aff0-bb52968db52d).html (Link to Event Details )

Cite this

@inproceedings{b41849d12b684a35b58b6b429d1ce906,

title = "Left-hand side BBN model for process safety",

abstract = "This paper describes the blueprint of a model for calculating the left-hand side of the bow-tie for chemical plants is described. The model is based on Non-Parametric Bayesian Belief Nets so that uncertainties are automatically included. Also, the procedure for constructing the elements for the model is described. The aim is to calculate LoC frequencies for entire chemical plants in a single straightforward modeling approach in a single model. It is demonstrated that only four principle design rules are required to construct the blueprint for a model that is flexible and straightforward to work with. It was also found that design process for the components of the model is traceable and reproducible. A structured working procedure was designed to meet those requirements. A numerical validation process will follow in the future.",

author = "{Van Gulijk}, C. and Hanea, {D. H.} and {Almeida Le{\~n}ero}, {Karina Q.} and M. Steenhoek and Ale, {B. J.M.} and Dan Ababei",

note = "No record of this in Eprints. HN 24/11/2017; Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 ; Conference date: 29-09-2013 Through 02-10-2013",

year = "2014",

month = sep,

day = "18",

language = "English",

isbn = "9781138001237",

pages = "1867--1873",

booktitle = "Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon",

publisher = "C R C Press",

address = "United States",

url = "https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/en/activities/european-safety-and-reliability-conference-esrel-2013(4f871466-b57c-4ec1-aff0-bb52968db52d).html",

}

Van Gulijk, C, Hanea, DH, Almeida Leñero, KQ, Steenhoek, M, Ale, BJM & Ababei, D 2014, Left-hand side BBN model for process safety. in Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon : Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. C R C Press, pp. 1867-1873, Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 29/09/13.

Left-hand side BBN model for process safety. / Van Gulijk, C.; Hanea, D. H.; Almeida Leñero, Karina Q. et al.

Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon : Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. C R C Press, 2014. p. 1867-1873.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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AU - Van Gulijk, C.

AU - Hanea, D. H.

AU - Almeida Leñero, Karina Q.

AU - Steenhoek, M.

AU - Ale, B. J.M.

AU - Ababei, Dan

N1 - No record of this in Eprints. HN 24/11/2017

PY - 2014/9/18

Y1 - 2014/9/18

N2 - This paper describes the blueprint of a model for calculating the left-hand side of the bow-tie for chemical plants is described. The model is based on Non-Parametric Bayesian Belief Nets so that uncertainties are automatically included. Also, the procedure for constructing the elements for the model is described. The aim is to calculate LoC frequencies for entire chemical plants in a single straightforward modeling approach in a single model. It is demonstrated that only four principle design rules are required to construct the blueprint for a model that is flexible and straightforward to work with. It was also found that design process for the components of the model is traceable and reproducible. A structured working procedure was designed to meet those requirements. A numerical validation process will follow in the future.

AB - This paper describes the blueprint of a model for calculating the left-hand side of the bow-tie for chemical plants is described. The model is based on Non-Parametric Bayesian Belief Nets so that uncertainties are automatically included. Also, the procedure for constructing the elements for the model is described. The aim is to calculate LoC frequencies for entire chemical plants in a single straightforward modeling approach in a single model. It is demonstrated that only four principle design rules are required to construct the blueprint for a model that is flexible and straightforward to work with. It was also found that design process for the components of the model is traceable and reproducible. A structured working procedure was designed to meet those requirements. A numerical validation process will follow in the future.

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T2 - Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference

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Left-hand side BBN model for process safety

Abstract

Conference

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