Modeling Judgment of Sequentially Presented Categories using Weighting and Sampling Without Replacement

Petko Kusev, Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova, Paul van Schaik, Nick Chater

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In a series of experiments, Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011) studied relative-frequency judgments of items drawn from two distinct categories. The experiments showed that the judged frequencies of categories of sequentially encountered stimuli are affected by the properties of the experienced sequences. Specifically, a first-run effect was observed, whereby people overestimated the frequency of a given category when that category was the first repeated category to occur in the sequence. Here, we (1) interpret these findings as reflecting the operation of a judgment heuristic sensitive to sequential patterns, (2) present mathematical definitions of the sequences used in Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011), and (3) present a mathematical formalization of the first-run effect-the judgments-relative-to-patterns model-to account for the judged frequencies of sequentially encountered stimuli. The model parameter w accounts for the effect of the length of the first run on frequency estimates, given the total sequence length. We fitted data from Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011) to the model parameters, so that with increasing values of w, subsequent items in the first run have less influence on judgments. We see the role of the model as essential for advancing knowledge in the psychology of judgments, as well as in other disciplines, such as computer science, cognitive neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and human-computer interaction.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1129-34
Number of pages6
JournalBehavior Research Methods
Volume44
Issue number4
Early online date21 Jul 2012
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2012
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Experimental Psychology
Artificial Intelligence
Replacement
Sampling
Modeling
Psychology
Stimulus
Experiment
Length

Cite this

Kusev, Petko ; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira ; van Schaik, Paul ; Chater, Nick. / Modeling Judgment of Sequentially Presented Categories using Weighting and Sampling Without Replacement. In: Behavior Research Methods. 2012 ; Vol. 44, No. 4. pp. 1129-34.
@article{dc43b721f7ec4e858887027f0df551e2,
title = "Modeling Judgment of Sequentially Presented Categories using Weighting and Sampling Without Replacement",
abstract = "In a series of experiments, Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011) studied relative-frequency judgments of items drawn from two distinct categories. The experiments showed that the judged frequencies of categories of sequentially encountered stimuli are affected by the properties of the experienced sequences. Specifically, a first-run effect was observed, whereby people overestimated the frequency of a given category when that category was the first repeated category to occur in the sequence. Here, we (1) interpret these findings as reflecting the operation of a judgment heuristic sensitive to sequential patterns, (2) present mathematical definitions of the sequences used in Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011), and (3) present a mathematical formalization of the first-run effect-the judgments-relative-to-patterns model-to account for the judged frequencies of sequentially encountered stimuli. The model parameter w accounts for the effect of the length of the first run on frequency estimates, given the total sequence length. We fitted data from Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011) to the model parameters, so that with increasing values of w, subsequent items in the first run have less influence on judgments. We see the role of the model as essential for advancing knowledge in the psychology of judgments, as well as in other disciplines, such as computer science, cognitive neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and human-computer interaction.",
keywords = "Discrimination (Psychology), Humans, Judgment, Memory, Episodic, Models, Psychological, Pattern Recognition, Physiological, Problem Solving, Reproducibility of Results",
author = "Petko Kusev and Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova and {van Schaik}, Paul and Nick Chater",
year = "2012",
month = "12",
doi = "10.3758/s13428-012-0218-9",
language = "English",
volume = "44",
pages = "1129--34",
journal = "Behavior Research Methods",
issn = "1554-351X",
publisher = "Psychonomic Society Inc.",
number = "4",

}

Modeling Judgment of Sequentially Presented Categories using Weighting and Sampling Without Replacement. / Kusev, Petko; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; van Schaik, Paul; Chater, Nick.

In: Behavior Research Methods, Vol. 44, No. 4, 12.2012, p. 1129-34.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling Judgment of Sequentially Presented Categories using Weighting and Sampling Without Replacement

AU - Kusev, Petko

AU - Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira

AU - van Schaik, Paul

AU - Chater, Nick

PY - 2012/12

Y1 - 2012/12

N2 - In a series of experiments, Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011) studied relative-frequency judgments of items drawn from two distinct categories. The experiments showed that the judged frequencies of categories of sequentially encountered stimuli are affected by the properties of the experienced sequences. Specifically, a first-run effect was observed, whereby people overestimated the frequency of a given category when that category was the first repeated category to occur in the sequence. Here, we (1) interpret these findings as reflecting the operation of a judgment heuristic sensitive to sequential patterns, (2) present mathematical definitions of the sequences used in Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011), and (3) present a mathematical formalization of the first-run effect-the judgments-relative-to-patterns model-to account for the judged frequencies of sequentially encountered stimuli. The model parameter w accounts for the effect of the length of the first run on frequency estimates, given the total sequence length. We fitted data from Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011) to the model parameters, so that with increasing values of w, subsequent items in the first run have less influence on judgments. We see the role of the model as essential for advancing knowledge in the psychology of judgments, as well as in other disciplines, such as computer science, cognitive neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and human-computer interaction.

AB - In a series of experiments, Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011) studied relative-frequency judgments of items drawn from two distinct categories. The experiments showed that the judged frequencies of categories of sequentially encountered stimuli are affected by the properties of the experienced sequences. Specifically, a first-run effect was observed, whereby people overestimated the frequency of a given category when that category was the first repeated category to occur in the sequence. Here, we (1) interpret these findings as reflecting the operation of a judgment heuristic sensitive to sequential patterns, (2) present mathematical definitions of the sequences used in Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011), and (3) present a mathematical formalization of the first-run effect-the judgments-relative-to-patterns model-to account for the judged frequencies of sequentially encountered stimuli. The model parameter w accounts for the effect of the length of the first run on frequency estimates, given the total sequence length. We fitted data from Kusev et al. (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 37:1874-1886, 2011) to the model parameters, so that with increasing values of w, subsequent items in the first run have less influence on judgments. We see the role of the model as essential for advancing knowledge in the psychology of judgments, as well as in other disciplines, such as computer science, cognitive neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and human-computer interaction.

KW - Discrimination (Psychology)

KW - Humans

KW - Judgment

KW - Memory, Episodic

KW - Models, Psychological

KW - Pattern Recognition, Physiological

KW - Problem Solving

KW - Reproducibility of Results

U2 - 10.3758/s13428-012-0218-9

DO - 10.3758/s13428-012-0218-9

M3 - Article

VL - 44

SP - 1129

EP - 1134

JO - Behavior Research Methods

JF - Behavior Research Methods

SN - 1554-351X

IS - 4

ER -