Modelling Asymmetric Conditional Dependence between Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Markets

Weiou Wu, Marco Chi Keung Lau, Samuel A. Vigne

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper investigates the asymmetric conditional dependence between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock index returns, to assess the impact of the recent financial recession on Chinese equity markets using the Copula approach. We first propose methods for optimal model selection when constructing the conditional margins. The joint conditional distribution is then modelled by the time-varying copula, where the generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model of Creal et al. (2013) is used to capture the evolution of the copula parameters. Upper and lower parts of the bivariate tail are estimated separately in order to capture the asymmetric property. We find the conditional dependence between the two markets is strongly time-varying. While the correlation decreased before the crisis, it increased significantly prior to 2008, pointing to the existence of contagion between the two markets. Moreover, we find a slightly stronger bivariate upper tail, suggesting the conditional dependence of stock returns is more significantly influenced by positive shocks in China. This finding is further confirmed by a test for asymmetry which shows that the difference between upper and lower joint tails is significant.
LanguageEnglish
Pages1137-1149
Number of pages13
JournalResearch in International Business and Finance
Volume42
Early online date23 Jul 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2017
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Hong Kong stock market
Shanghai
Modeling
Copula
Time-varying
Stock index
Recession
Conditional distribution
Stock returns
Asymmetry
Margin
China
Model selection
Contagion
Chinese equity market
Hong Kong

Cite this

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title = "Modelling Asymmetric Conditional Dependence between Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Markets",
abstract = "This paper investigates the asymmetric conditional dependence between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock index returns, to assess the impact of the recent financial recession on Chinese equity markets using the Copula approach. We first propose methods for optimal model selection when constructing the conditional margins. The joint conditional distribution is then modelled by the time-varying copula, where the generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model of Creal et al. (2013) is used to capture the evolution of the copula parameters. Upper and lower parts of the bivariate tail are estimated separately in order to capture the asymmetric property. We find the conditional dependence between the two markets is strongly time-varying. While the correlation decreased before the crisis, it increased significantly prior to 2008, pointing to the existence of contagion between the two markets. Moreover, we find a slightly stronger bivariate upper tail, suggesting the conditional dependence of stock returns is more significantly influenced by positive shocks in China. This finding is further confirmed by a test for asymmetry which shows that the difference between upper and lower joint tails is significant.",
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Modelling Asymmetric Conditional Dependence between Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Markets. / Wu, Weiou; Lau, Marco Chi Keung; Vigne, Samuel A.

In: Research in International Business and Finance, Vol. 42, 12.2017, p. 1137-1149.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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