Natural Time Analysis of Global Seismicity

Stavros Richard G. Christopoulos, Panayiotis K. Varotsos, Jennifer Perez-Oregon, Konstantina A. Papadopoulou, Efthimios S. Skordas, Nicholas V. Sarlis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)


Natural time analysis enables the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity, which is just the variance of natural time (Formula presented.), (Formula presented.). During the last years, there has been significant progress in the natural time analysis of seismicity. Milestones in this progress are the identification of clearly distiguishable minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter (Formula presented.) of seismicity both in the regional and global scale, the emergence of an interrelation between the time correlations of the earthquake (EQ) magnitude time series and these minima, and the introduction by Turcotte, Rundle and coworkers of EQ nowcasting. Here, we apply all these recent advances in the global seismicity by employing the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. We show that the combination of the above three milestones may provide useful precursory information for the time of occurrence and epicenter location of strong EQs with (Formula presented.) in GCMT. This can be achieved with high statistical significance (p-values of the order of (Formula presented.)), while the epicentral areas lie within a region covering only 4% of that investigated.

Original languageEnglish
Article number7496
Number of pages22
JournalApplied Sciences (Switzerland)
Issue number15
Early online date26 Jul 2022
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2022
Externally publishedYes


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