9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Police presumptions about criminal career trajectories have been little studied. The exploratory study reported here involved 42 police staff of varying rank and experience. Participants were asked to complete a questionnaire that asked them to predict the type of offence that an individual with a specified prior record would most probably commit next. Participating police personnel substantially overstated the homogeneity of criminal careers, that is, the nature of prior offences determined their prediction of their next offence more than available official data would deem reasonable. An incidental finding was that officers who rated the probability of further offending highest were also those who thought criminal careers most specialised. The implications for operational police decision-making were discussed and held to be profound.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)164-178
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling
Volume11
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Fingerprint

Police
Incidental Findings
Decision Making

Cite this

@article{dc3cf426d9594f0f8127d11a8b64a524,
title = "Police overestimation of criminal career homogeneity",
abstract = "Police presumptions about criminal career trajectories have been little studied. The exploratory study reported here involved 42 police staff of varying rank and experience. Participants were asked to complete a questionnaire that asked them to predict the type of offence that an individual with a specified prior record would most probably commit next. Participating police personnel substantially overstated the homogeneity of criminal careers, that is, the nature of prior offences determined their prediction of their next offence more than available official data would deem reasonable. An incidental finding was that officers who rated the probability of further offending highest were also those who thought criminal careers most specialised. The implications for operational police decision-making were discussed and held to be profound.",
keywords = "Criminal careers, Offence homogeneity, Police decision-making",
author = "Jason Roach and Ken Pease",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1002/jip.1405",
language = "English",
volume = "11",
pages = "164--178",
journal = "Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling",
issn = "1544-4759",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "2",

}

Police overestimation of criminal career homogeneity. / Roach, Jason; Pease, Ken.

In: Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, Vol. 11, No. 2, 2014, p. 164-178.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Police overestimation of criminal career homogeneity

AU - Roach, Jason

AU - Pease, Ken

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Police presumptions about criminal career trajectories have been little studied. The exploratory study reported here involved 42 police staff of varying rank and experience. Participants were asked to complete a questionnaire that asked them to predict the type of offence that an individual with a specified prior record would most probably commit next. Participating police personnel substantially overstated the homogeneity of criminal careers, that is, the nature of prior offences determined their prediction of their next offence more than available official data would deem reasonable. An incidental finding was that officers who rated the probability of further offending highest were also those who thought criminal careers most specialised. The implications for operational police decision-making were discussed and held to be profound.

AB - Police presumptions about criminal career trajectories have been little studied. The exploratory study reported here involved 42 police staff of varying rank and experience. Participants were asked to complete a questionnaire that asked them to predict the type of offence that an individual with a specified prior record would most probably commit next. Participating police personnel substantially overstated the homogeneity of criminal careers, that is, the nature of prior offences determined their prediction of their next offence more than available official data would deem reasonable. An incidental finding was that officers who rated the probability of further offending highest were also those who thought criminal careers most specialised. The implications for operational police decision-making were discussed and held to be profound.

KW - Criminal careers

KW - Offence homogeneity

KW - Police decision-making

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84901694865&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/jip.1405

DO - 10.1002/jip.1405

M3 - Article

VL - 11

SP - 164

EP - 178

JO - Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling

JF - Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling

SN - 1544-4759

IS - 2

ER -