Predictability of the coherent-noise model and its applications

N. V. Sarlis, S. R.G. Christopoulos

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)


We study the threshold distribution function of the coherent-noise model for the case of infinite number of agents. This function is piecewise constant with a finite number of steps n. The latter exhibits a 1/f behavior as a function of the order of occurrence of an avalanche and hence versus natural time. An analytic expression of the expectation value E(S) for the size S of the next avalanche is obtained and used for the prediction of the next avalanche. Apart from E(S), the number of steps n can also serve for this purpose. This enables the construction of a similar prediction scheme which can be applied to real earthquake aftershock data.

Original languageEnglish
Article number051136
JournalPhysical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 25 May 2012
Externally publishedYes


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