Predicting Learning and Retention in a Complex Task

This paper reports an experiment investigating learning and retention in a complex task over multiple sessions across an extended period of time. The primary aim of the experiment is to evaluate the Predictive Performance Equation (PPE: Jastrzembski & Gluck, 2009) a model of learning and forgetting that predicts retention based on past performance. The second aim is to test a taxonomy for knowledge, skills and attitudes and a competence retention analysis technique developed to improve competence retention in military training (Cahillane, Launchbury, MacLean, &Webb, 2013). Participants were trained over 16 weeks on the Multi-Attribute Task Battery (MATB: Comstock Jr & Arnegard, 1992), a computer-based task analogous to piloting an aircraft. The study reveals significant variation in learning profiles for the MATB subtasks and demonstrates the PPE’s ability to make accurate predictions of human performance over intervals ranging from 27 to 111 days.