Predicting Post-Discharge Community Violence in England and Wales Using the HCR-20V3

Michael Doyle, Laura Archer Power, Jeremy Coid, Constantinos Kallis, Simone Ullrich, Jenny Shaw

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

37 Citations (Scopus)


Structured guidelines are fundamental for risk assessment, formulation and decision-making in medium secure forensic psychiatric services in the UK. The most commonly used guideline for violence risk assessment in the UK is the HCR-20, so it is important that the new version of the HCR-20 (HCR-20V3) is validated in UK samples. The aims of this study were to investigate if the HCR-20V3 has satisfactory interrater reliability and predictive validity for community violence. A prospective confidential inquiry design was used. The HCR-20V3 demonstrated very good inter-rater reliability and significantly predicted community violence at six and twelve months post-discharge, with ROC AUCs of.73 and.70 respectively. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)140-147
Number of pages8
JournalInternational Journal of Forensic Mental Health
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2014
Externally publishedYes


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