Predicting Post-Discharge Community Violence in England and Wales Using the HCR-20V3

Michael Doyle; Laura Archer Power; Jeremy Coid; Constantinos Kallis; Simone Ullrich; Jenny Shaw

doi:10.1080/14999013.2014.906517

Predicting Post-Discharge Community Violence in England and Wales Using the HCR-20^V3

Michael Doyle, Laura Archer Power, Jeremy Coid, Constantinos Kallis, Simone Ullrich, Jenny Shaw

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

47 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Structured guidelines are fundamental for risk assessment, formulation and decision-making in medium secure forensic psychiatric services in the UK. The most commonly used guideline for violence risk assessment in the UK is the HCR-20, so it is important that the new version of the HCR-20 (HCR-20^V3) is validated in UK samples. The aims of this study were to investigate if the HCR-20^V3 has satisfactory interrater reliability and predictive validity for community violence. A prospective confidential inquiry design was used. The HCR-20^V3 demonstrated very good inter-rater reliability and significantly predicted community violence at six and twelve months post-discharge, with ROC AUCs of.73 and.70 respectively. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	140-147
Number of pages	8
Journal	International Journal of Forensic Mental Health
Volume	13
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/14999013.2014.906517
Publication status	Published - 1 Apr 2014
Externally published	Yes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being
SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

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Cite this

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AU - Shaw, Jenny

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N2 - Structured guidelines are fundamental for risk assessment, formulation and decision-making in medium secure forensic psychiatric services in the UK. The most commonly used guideline for violence risk assessment in the UK is the HCR-20, so it is important that the new version of the HCR-20 (HCR-20V3) is validated in UK samples. The aims of this study were to investigate if the HCR-20V3 has satisfactory interrater reliability and predictive validity for community violence. A prospective confidential inquiry design was used. The HCR-20V3 demonstrated very good inter-rater reliability and significantly predicted community violence at six and twelve months post-discharge, with ROC AUCs of.73 and.70 respectively. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.

AB - Structured guidelines are fundamental for risk assessment, formulation and decision-making in medium secure forensic psychiatric services in the UK. The most commonly used guideline for violence risk assessment in the UK is the HCR-20, so it is important that the new version of the HCR-20 (HCR-20V3) is validated in UK samples. The aims of this study were to investigate if the HCR-20V3 has satisfactory interrater reliability and predictive validity for community violence. A prospective confidential inquiry design was used. The HCR-20V3 demonstrated very good inter-rater reliability and significantly predicted community violence at six and twelve months post-discharge, with ROC AUCs of.73 and.70 respectively. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.

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Predicting Post-Discharge Community Violence in England and Wales Using the HCR-20^V3

Abstract

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