Quantifying the Need for Synthetic Inertia in the UK Grid: Empirical Evidence from Frequency Demand and Generation Data

The increasing integration of inverter-based renewable energy sources is displacing conventional synchronous generation, resulting in a progressive reduction in system inertia and heightened challenges to frequency stability. This study presents a detailed empirical analysis of the UK electricity grid over a representative 24 h period, utilizing high-resolution datasets that capture grid frequency, energy demand, generation mix, and wholesale market prices. An inertia proxy is developed based on the share of synchronous generation, enabling quantitative assessment of its relationship with the Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF). Through the application of change point detection and unsupervised clustering algorithms, the analysis identifies critical renewable penetration thresholds beyond which frequency stability significantly deteriorates. These findings underscore the increasing importance of synthetic inertia in maintaining grid resilience under high renewable scenarios. The results offer actionable insights for system operators aiming to enhance frequency control strategies and contribute to the formulation of policy and technical standards regarding synthetic inertia provision in future low-inertia power systems.