Statistical Modelling of Wear and Damage Trajectories of Railway Wheelsets

This paper discusses the use of linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models to predict the wear and damage trajectories of railway wheelsets for a fleet of modern multiple unit trains. The wear trajectory is described by the evolution of the wheel flange thickness, the flange height and the tread diameter, whereas the damage trajectory is assessed through the probabilities of various types of wheel tread damage such as rolling contact fatigue, wheel flats and cavities occurring. Different model specifications are compared based on an information criterion.