The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model

Emmanuel Apergis, Nicholas Apergis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This paper explores the impact on the macroeconomy for certain OECD economies exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. The analysis employs a panel of OECD countries, spanning the period March 2020 to January 2021. It also uses two proxies for the COVID-19 shocks: i) total confirmed incidences/cases and ii) total deaths while using the Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) method. The findings document that the COVID-19 shock exerts a strong negative effect on industrial production. Considering how such epidemic shocks affect the expectations of economic participants, the paper questions their absence in accounting for forthcoming growth related incidences.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages13
JournalApplied Economics
Early online date5 Jul 2021
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 5 Jul 2021

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