Aims Episode of care pressure ulcer (PU) incidence leads to deleterious effects on patient quality of life, and additional costs associated with wound dressings, staff visits and hospitalization. Accurate prediction of future incidence may be helpful in defining strategies for benchmarking and resource management. Observations of category 2 or above PUs during episodes of care at an NHS Foundation Trust were recorded monthly from 2010 to 2020. Trust-specific interventions designed to reduce PU incidence, such as procurement of specialized staff and equipment, were also recorded. This study aimed to investigate the historical pattern of PU incidence in the Trust to assess intervention effectiveness in reducing PU incidence; and to use historical data to derive estimates of future incidences. Methods Time-series analysis was conducted on monthly PU incidence data to quantify underlying trends, seasonality and effect of interventions; and to derive a suitable model to predict future incidence levels. Results Mean monthly PU incidences gradually reduced from 20.3 during 2012 to 5.08 during 2019; with a negative linear trend in the presence of concurrent seasonal effects and data noise. There was limited evidence that implementation of specific interventions was associated with raised rates of reduction; however, incidence reductions during intervention periods continued from lower baselines. Best estimate predictions revealed that incidences are likely to stay at current levels or below for the foreseeable future. Conclusions Past data can be used to model predict future episode of care PU occurrence. Interventions may be effective in reducing PU incidence rates.
|Journal||Journal of wound care|
|Publication status||Accepted/In press - 5 May 2021|