When children go missing: identifying risk factors to predict repeat incidents

Purpose
Missing children face significant risks, and although most return safely, several remain missing. Children who are repeatedly reported missing are especially vulnerable, being more susceptible to dangers, including alcohol and drug misuse, exploitation and sexual abuse. This study aims to identify risk factors associated with repeat missing children incidents, as this is an under-researched area.

Design/methodology/approach
This study analysed police records of missing children from one UK police force, covering incidents reported from June 2018 to July 2019 (n = 907). Quantitative methods were used to investigate the characteristics and factors predicting repeat children disappearances reported to authorities.

Findings
Over 80% of all missing child reports referred to repeat incidents. Notably, just 8.3% of children accounted for more than half the total incidents recorded. Several significant risk factors for repeated disappearances were identified, including prior criminal exploitation, violent behaviour, adverse childhood experiences previous arrests, and being in care. These factors were found to predict children at greater risk of repeatedly going missing.

Originality/value
This study provides novel data-driven insights into the predictors of repeat reports of missing children based on police data. The findings have important implications for developing proactive policing risk assessments, enabling constabularies and policymakers to identify and support children at a greater risk of going missing before they go missing. This research contributes to improved safeguarding practices and more efficient allocation of police resources.