Community participation is a key element of people-centred early warning systems. Community participation is suggested to lead to improved early warning outcomes, such as strengthened warning communication and dissemination, and preparedness and response. While participation of communities is recommended, how it delivers the suggested outcomes is not well understood. Questions remain as to what it is about community participation that facilitates effective early warning. Therefore, this study sought to understand how and under what circumstances the outcomes of community participation are produced. This understanding is important for the effective design and implementation of participatory initiatives. The aim was to develop a framework for community participation in early warning systems that explains how and why community participation contributes to its outcomes, taking into account the influence of context. The study initially adopted a broad view of community participation, and subsequently focused on the participation of volunteers in flood early warning. The study was guided by critical realism and employed qualitative methods. Following critical realism, mechanisms were identified that explain the outcomes. Data were collected in the United Kingdom and Sri Lanka to facilitate the examination of contextual influences. Expert interviews were conducted in both countries to understand the wider context. Six case studies of volunteer participation in flood early warning systems were conducted (four in the UK and two in Sri Lanka). Case study data were collected via semi-structured interviews, observations, and a document review. Critical realist informed thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. The analysis identified the outcomes of volunteer participation, the mechanisms, and contextual influences, and the connections between them. It was found that volunteer participation contributed to the localisation of warnings, warning dissemination and communication, collective action towards preparedness, anticipatory action and response, and the mitigation of negative feelings around flooding for other residents. Four mechanisms were identified in relation to the outcomes: the ability to detect flooding locally, the leveraging of social networks, the volunteers as trusted local risk communicators, and communication channels and relationships between authorities and the volunteers. Important contextual influences on these mechanisms included the hazard characteristics, and availability of warning information, the volunteer context (including their knowledge, skills, and goals), the local social context (availability and type of social networks, norms of community support, and perceptions), and the institutional context (authority capacities, and relationships with volunteers). The connections between the factors were developed in the overall framework. The framework is novel in its identification of the underlying mechanisms, and the connections drawn between context, mechanisms, and outcomes. The framework contributes to the development of theory on community participation, and provides factors that will support practitioners in designing and implementing effective volunteer participation in flood early warning.
| Date of Award | 13 Feb 2026 |
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| Original language | English |
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| Supervisor | Michael Ginger (Main Supervisor) |
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