This thesis examines the evolving role of the oil and natural gas sectors in resource-dependent developing economies through three empirical essays. Motivated by structural changes in global hydrocarbon markets, especially the shale revolution and the growing importance of natural gas, the thesis assesses how oil dependence, institutional quality, and gas-sector development impact long-run economic growth. Employing cross-country panel datasets and modern econometric methods, the study provides new evidence on the conditions in which hydrocarbon wealth supports sustainable growth. The first essay examines ten oil-exporting developing countries using linear PMG–ARDL and nonlinear NARDL models to evaluate the long-run and asymmetric effects of oil prices and oil rents on economic growth. The findings indicate that both indicators of oil dependence have positive and statistically significant long-run effects, with elasticities ranging from 0.16 to 0.19. Nonlinear analysis shows that negative oil shocks produce larger and more persistent longrun impacts than positive shocks, highlighting the structural vulnerability of oil-dependent economies. Human capital, labour expansion, and trade openness enhance growth outcomes, whereas capital formation remains inefficient. The second essay extends the analysis to 22 developing oil exporters to assess how institutional quality influences the oil–growth relationship. Using PMG–ARDL as the main estimator and FMOLS for robustness, the results indicate that institutional quality has both stabilising and enabling effects. Stronger institutions lessen growth sensitivity to oil-price volatility and enhance the long-run ability to convert oil revenues into productive gains. Governance aspects such as government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and voice and accountability are identified as the most significant channels. These findings suggest that the resource curse is conditional rather than unavoidable. The third essay examines nine GECF natural-gas exporters using FMOLS, CCR, and heterogeneous Granger causality tests. The results confirm positive long-run effects of gas consumption and gas exports on economic growth, with elasticities of 0.03-0.06. Short-run causality flows from growth to gas activity, indicating that gas development is demand-driven. Institutional quality again plays a vital moderating role, determining whether gas functions as a stabilising growth engine or a source of vulnerability. The findings reflect the post-shale transformation of global gas markets and emphasise natural gas as a transitional and diversification-enabling energy source. Overall, the thesis demonstrates that hydrocarbon wealth continues to promote growth, but its developmental benefits rely on institutional strength, fiscal discipline, and strategic adaptation to changing global energy dynamics.
| Date of Award | 9 Mar 2026 |
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| Original language | English |
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| Supervisor | Abhijit Sharma (Main Supervisor) & Gareth Downing (Co-Supervisor) |
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